«Automation and Informatization of the fuel and energy complex»

Models and algorithms of multi-criteria selection of fire and explosion safety parameters adaptive forecasting apparatus for objects of production and technical maintenance of gas producing complex. The ensemble Kalman filter

UDC: 004.942
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia

Keywords: fire and explosion safety, gas producing complex, multi-criteria estimation, automated adaptive management, ensemble Kalman filter, decision-making support system, multi-agent systems

Annotation:

The article identifies the problem of increasing effectiveness of tactical and operational adaptive management of fire and explosion safety over the hazardous objects of production and technical maintenance of gas producing complex (PTM GPC). Models, algorithm and software module for the multi-criteria choice of apparatus for the adjustive forecasting of fire and explosion safety parameters of the layer-well system objects were developed. The program module operates as the intelligent agent of the programming and computing suite of the multi-agent adaptive network-centric decision-support system (MAASDSS) for the adjusted management of the fire and explosion safety over the hazardous objects of the PTC GPC. Proposed algorithm of the multi-criteria choice and adjustive forecasting of fire and explosion safety parameters (on the tactical level) applying to the hazardous industrial objects of layer-well system is distinguished by the modified fire and explosion safety parameters system, the multi-criteria choice of the approximation models unit with fuzzy inference apparatus, and multi-criteria choice and application of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) modifications. The architecture of the programming and computing suite of MAASDSS for the fire and explosion safety management of the PTM GPC objects is proposed and applied with adjustive network-centric management mechanisms. Obtained results provide the decision-maker with information about the fire and explosion safety parameters dynamics for the hazardous industrial objects of the PTM GPC as applied to layer-well system of oil, gas and condensate fields taking into account the exploitation conditions of the Far North technological objects.

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