«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

Market macro-parameters variability accounting methodology for hydrocarbon reserves development efficiency assessment

UDC: 553.98.048:519.2
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ RN - Geology Research Development, Tyumen, Russia

Keywords: economic efficiency, variability accounting, scenario conditions, macro-parameters, raw hydrocarbons, gas assets portfolio, development profitability, gas production, stocks inventory

Annotation:

In conditions of the hydrocarbons world markets high volatility, implementation of projects for the development of hydrocarbons fields is associated with external risks and the cost determination of their development requires accounting of many factors. Traditional economic assessment of projected development options uses prices and parameters being active on the assessment date and doesn’t account for macroeconomic assumptions frequent changes. The authors of the article propose a macro-parameters variability accounting methodology for field development efficiency assessment. The proposed algorithm envisages economic assessment of a development option by three macro-economic scenarios generated on the basis of real data, formed during a historical period: optimistic, average and pessimistic. The approach application will allow the subsoil users to forecast financial results more accurately with account for the existing uncertainty, identify improvement of asset development potential efficiency, reduce management risks in the long term and ensure consistently profitable assets portfolio of the company.

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