«Proceedings of Gubkin University»

Economic growth rates are directly dependent on imports of Russian hydrocarbons

UDC: 339.5:665.6(470)
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas “Gubkin University”, Moscow, Russian Federation

Keywords: world economy, global energy sector, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, energy consumption, production, gross domestic product

Annotation:

This article continues a series of studies devoted to the analysis of the role of hydrocarbons in the global economy and energy. The article examines the dependence of economic growth rates on the consumption volumes of oil and natural gas, using key regions as case studies: the EU, China, and India. Based on the analysis of statistical data from 2015 to 2024, the authors demonstrate that the reduction in imports of Russian energy resources by the EU countries against the backdrop of the sanctions led to a decrease in their overall hydrocarbon consumption and, consequently, to the lowest GDP growth rates among the countries considered. Whereas the rapidly growing economies of China and India increasing their energy imports, show leading economic growth rates. The authors conclude that hydrocarbons remain the foundation of the global energy balance, and Russia, possessing one of the world's largest reserves, is a key guarantor of reliable supplies and sustainable economic growth both for importing countries and for its national economy.

Bibliography:

1. Smil V. Energiya i civilizaciya. Ot pervobytnosti do nashih dnej. – M.: Bombora, 2020. – 825 s.
2. Mirovaya energetika stremitel’no menyaet oblik. – URL: https://rg.ru/2025/06/21/mirovaia-energetika-stremitelno-meniaet-oblik.html
3. Ergin D. Novaya karta mira. Energeticheskie resursy, menyayushchijsya klimat i stolknovenie nacij. The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations / per. s angl. M. Vitebskij. – M.: Al’pina Pablisher, 2021. – 444 s.
4. Postuglevodorodnaya ekonomika: voprosy perekhoda / E.A. Telegina, V.P. Sorokin, G.O. Halova [i dr.]. – M.: RGU nefti i gaza (NIU) imeni I.M. Gubkina, 2017. – 407 s.
5. Mastepanov A.M. Perspektivy razvitiya neftyanogo sektora mirovoj ekonomiki v 2025– 2026 gg. v ocenkah vedushchih zarubezhnyh issledovatel’skih centrov // Neftyanoe hozyajstvo. – 2025. – № 9. – S. 6–12. – DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2025-9-6-12
6. Mastepanov A.M. Ostanetsya li neft’ vedushchim energonositelem v mire: v perekrestke mnenij // Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom. – 2024. – № 5 (233). – S. 5–7.
7. Prirodnyj gaz kak osnova energoobespecheniya ustojchivogo razvitiya mirovoj ekonomiki / A.Yu. Serovajskij, V.G. Kucherov, A.S. Lopatin, V.V. Bessel’ // Trudy RGU nefti i gaza imeni I.M. Gubkina. – 2022. – № 4 (309). – S. 94–103. – DOI: 10.33285/2073-9028-2022-4(309)-94-103
8. Rol’ uglevodorodov v sisteme global’nogo potrebleniya energii / V.V. Bessel’, A.S. Lopatin, V.G. Martynov, R.D. Mingaleeva // Trudy RGU nefti i gaza imeni I.M. Gubkina. – 2025. – № 1 (318). – S. 31–50.
9. Putin vystupil na Rossijskoj energeticheskoj nedele. – URL: https://iz.ru/1973743/2025-10-16/putin-vystupil-na-rossiiskoi-energeticheskoi-nedele-glavnoe
10. BP (Energy Institute). Statistical Review of World Energy. – 2016–2025. – URL: https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
11. Vasilenko E.P., Sidorovskij M.O., Shishigin S.V. Kitaj na puti k uglerodnoj nejtral’nosti: analiticheskaya zapiska CB RF, oktyabr’ 2024 g. – URL: https://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/166501/analytic_note_20241018_dfs.pdf
12. Pereorientaciya vektora eksporta prirodnogo gaza iz Rossii – politicheskij kapriz ili ob’’ektivnaya neobhodimost’? / R.Yu. Fomin, R.D. Mingaleeva, V.V. Bessel’, A.S. Lopatin // Trudy RGU nefti i gaza imeni I.M. Gubkina. – 2023. – № 2 (311). – S. 56–70. – DOI: 10.33285/2073-9028-2023-2(311)-56-70
13. World Bank. GDP PPP (Current International $). – URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD
14. Mingaleeva R.D., Bessel’ V.V. Ustojchivoe razvitie krupnejshih ekonomik mira trebuet vse bol’she energii // Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom. – 2022. – № 3 (207). – S. 57–63. – DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2022-3(207)-57-63
15. Bessel’ V.V., Lopatin A.S., Martynov V.G. O sostoyanii resursnoj bazy uglevodorodnogo syr’ya // Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanyh i gazovyh mestorozhdenij. – 2024. – № 12 (396). – S. 5–16.