MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR FORECASTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF GAS WELLS AND THEIR PRACTICAL IMPORTANCE
UDC: 622.279.5+51-7
DOI: 10.33285/0132-2222-2021-2(571)-36-48
Authors:
TOLPAEV VLADIMIR ALEXANDROVICH 1,
AKHMEDOV KURBAN SAPIZHULLAEVICH 1
1 JSC "North-Caucasus Research and Design Institute of Natural Gases", Stavropol, Russian Federation
Keywords: approximation, mathematical models, well, Flow-rate, evolutionary curve, cubic splines, accumulated volume of produced gas, lead time, recoverable gas volume, drainage area
Annotation:
The theoretical foundations of a long-term planning by gas producing enterprises (GPE) of natural gas production volumes by the method of approximating the accumulated field data "flow rate - time" are proposed. The idea of the proposed method consists, firstly, in the fact that to calculate the predicted flow rates, the so-called evolutionary curves "flow rate - cumulative production" are preliminarily constructed, which are then used to calculate the predicted flow rates over time. Secondly, the novelty of the method is caused by the introduction of a predictive quantitative assessment of recoverable gas reserves into the calculations, which makes it possible to increase the lead time and the reliability of forecasts up to 5 years or more. Seven mathematical models for predicting the productivity of gas wells are proposed. Comparison of forecasted flow rate calculations made according to different mathematical models makes it possible to increase the reliability of predictions and the depth of the forecast lead time, which is especially important when developing long-term plans for the work of gas producing enterprises (GPE).
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