«Oilfield engineering»

Existing approaches to predicting the starting flow rates of production wells. formation and development of the author’s approach

UDC: 622.276.346
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Perm, Russia

Keywords: starting/initial oil production rate, hydrodynamic modeling, integrated modeling, data analysis, machine learning algorithms, modern forecasting approaches

Annotation:

Forecasting the initial production rates of oil wells is an important problem of the oil and gas industry, because the economic evaluation of projects, profitability of hydrocarbon field development, planning of on-land infrastructure and a number of other technological indicators directly depends on the accuracy of this indicator forecasting. The authors of the article present a comprehensive analysis of the existing approaches to predicting the initial oil flow rates of producing wells, including traditional analytical and statistical methods, more modern calculations on hydrodynamic simulators as well as the development of the authors’ method of forecasting the initial oil flow rates based on machine learning algorithms. The main attention is paid to the prerequisites for the development of the authors own approach to forecasting the initial oil flow rate, based on the synergetic use of the full range of production data and machine learning algorithms. The existing approaches to predicting initial oil flow rates of production wells, prerequisites and results of the development of the authors’ machine learning model to predict the initial oil flow rate, the initial data, prediction algorithm and metrics of the machine learning model are also reviewed in the article.

Bibliography:

1. Soromotin A.V., Martyushev D.A., Stepanenko I.B. Application of machine learning methods to forecast the rate of horizontal wells // SOCAR Proceedings. – 2023. – № 1. – P. 70–77. – DOI: 10.5510/OGP2023SI100833

2. Geologicheskoe i gidrodinamicheskoe modelirovanie mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza: ucheb. posobie. – Tomsk: Izd-vo Tomskogo politekh. un-ta, 2012. – 99 s.

3. Gidrodinamicheskoe modelirovanie. Podgotovka gidrodinamicheskoy modeli v Petrel 2015 i initsializatsiya v tNavigator. – Kazan’: K(P)FU, 2020. – 65 s.

4. Aleksandrov D.V., Zubarev A.Yu., Iskakova L.Yu. Vvedenie v gidrodinamiku: ucheb. posobie. – Ekaterinburg: Izd-vo Ural. un-ta, 2012. – 112 s.

5. Gidrodinamicheskoe modelirovanie razrabotki neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy: Prakticheskie zanyatiya s primeneniem programmnogo obespecheniya Petrel, Eclipse Schlumberger / P.V. Pyatibratov, E.R. Shaykhlislamova, V.N. Timofeeva, A.R. Aubakirov. – M.: RGU nefti i gaza (NIU) im. I.M. Gubkina, 2022. – 79 s.

6. Gladkov E.A. Geologicheskoe i gidrodinamicheskoe modelirovanie mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza. – Tomsk: Natsional’nyy issled. Tomskiy politekhn. un-t, 2012. – 99 s.

7. Ponomareva I.N., Mordvinov V.A. Podzemnaya gidromekhanika: ucheb. posobie. – Perm’: Perm. gos. tekhn. un-t, 2009. – 103 s.

8. Bashirova A.M., Yarkeeva N.R. Tsifrovaya fil’tratsionnaya model’ kak sposob prognozirovaniya pokazateley raboty proektnykh skvazhin na primere plasta BV81 Severo-Pokurskogo mestorozhdeniya // Neftegazovoe delo. – 2015. – T. 13, № 4. – S. 97–102.

9. Baishev V.Z., Kuznetsova M.A., Utrobin N.V. Ispol’zovanie lokal’nykh geologo-gidrodinamicheskikh modeley dlya prognoza debita vnov’ proburennykh skvazhin osnovnoy zalezhi ONGKM // Neftepromyslovoe delo. – 2008. – № 11. – S. 12–16.

10. Baishev V.Z., Kuznetsova M.A., Utrobin N.V. Gazogidrodinamicheskaya model’ s dvoynoy poristost’yu dlya prognoza potentsial’nogo debita skvazhiny s zarezkoy bokovogo gorizontal’nogo stvola // Neftepromyslovoe delo. – 2008. – № 11. – S. 42–45.

11. Polyakov D.V., Solodov P.A., Shafikov R.R. Razrabotka sposoba otsenki debita gorizontal’noy gazovoy skvazhiny v usloviyakh shel’fa // Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy. – 2020. – № 1(337). – S. 53–58. – DOI: 10.30713/2413-5011-2020-1(337)-53-58

12. Bolotnik D.N., Rybnikov A.V., Makarova E.S. Sovremennye resheniya dlya proektirovaniya, otsenki i optimizatsii gorizontal’nykh skvazhin i bokovykh stvolov na osnove trekhmernykh geologo-gidrodinamicheskikh modeley // Nauch. tr. NIPI Neftegaz GNKAR. – 2010. – № 2. – S. 63–69. – DOI: 10.5510/OGP20100200023

13. Voevodkin V.L., Galkin S.V., Poplygin V.V. Prognozirovanie debitov nefti pri tekhniko-ekonomicheskom obosnovanii proektov osvoeniya i poiskov mestorozhdeniy territorii VKMKS // Neftepromyslovoe delo. – 2010. – № 7. – S. 45–48.

14. Shcherbenev A.V. Prognozirovanie proizvoditel’nosti neftyanykh skvazhin po promyslovo-geofizicheskim dannym // Geologiya v razvivayushchemsya mire: sb. nauch. tr. (po materialam VI nauch.-prakt. konf. stud., asp. i molodykh uchenykh s mezhdunar. uchastiem): v 2 t. / otv. red. E.N. Baturin. – Perm’: Perm. gos. nats. issled. un-t, 2013. – T. 1. – S. 290.

15. Razrabotka metodiki veroyatnostnogo prognozirovaniya dobychi nefti / M.N. Khanipov, B.G. Ganiev, A.V. Nasybullin, R.Z. Sattarov // Neftyanaya provintsiya. – 2020. – T. 22, № 2. – S. 73–94. – DOI: 10.25689/NP.2020.2.73-94

16. Bergenov S.U., Chernova O.S., Zipir M.G. Metodika otsenki ozhidaemykh zapusknykh debitov gorizontal’nykh skvazhin na primere gazokondensatnykh mestorozhdeniy // Izv. Tomskogo politekhn. un-ta. Inzhiniring georesursov. – 2020. – T. 331, № 3. – S. 207–212. – DOI: 10.18799/24131830/2020/3/2563

17. Piskunov S.A., Davudi Sh. Prognozirovanie debita gorizontal’nykh skvazhin s primeneniem modeli mashinnogo obucheniya // Izv. Tomskogo politekhn. un-ta. Inzhiniring georesursov. – 2024. – T. 335, № 5. – S. 118–130. – DOI: 10.18799/24131830/2024/5/4553

18. Sposob analiticheskogo prognoza debita gorizontal’nykh skvazhin na mestorozhdeniyakh uglevodorodov v nizkopronitsaemykh plastakh-kollektorakh na primere mestorozhdeniya im. V.N. Vinogradova / I.B. Fedotov, O.Yu. Kashnikov, I.A. Kibalenko, O.N. Shevchenko // Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy. – 2018. – № 4. – S. 32–39. – DOI: 10.30713/2413-5011-2018-4-32-39

19. Metodika prognozirovaniya tempov padeniya nefti proektnykh skvazhin na osnove algoritma mashinnogo obucheniya / S.I. Gabitova, L.A. Davletbakova, V.Yu. Klimov [i dr.] // PRONEFT’’. Professional’no o nefti. – 2022. – № 4. – S. 69–74. – DOI: 10.7868/S2587739920040102

20. Martyushev D.A. Podkhod k opredeleniyu proizvoditel’nosti skvazhin v treshchinno-porovykh kollektorakh Verkhnego Prikam’ya // Burenie i neft’. – 2015. – № 2. – S. 44–46.