«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

Modeling of global LNG shipping using network approach

UDC: 656.02:339.56:62-621.2:62-404:519.87
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ NIIgazeconomika, Moscow, Russia

Keywords: LNG, shipping routes, basin, market, distance, topology, math model

Annotation:

The authors of the article present a new methodological approach to modeling the global LNG supply system using graph theory. An original graph topology is developed that allows for reducing the number of modeled links. The proposed method considers not only actual but also potential LNG transport routes, which is particularly relevant in the context of the market transition from long-term contracts to spot trade. The developed model can be used to forecast maritime transportation costs and optimize the LNG supply chain.

Bibliography:

1. IEA. Data and statistics. – URL: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics (data obrashcheniya 05.02.2025).
2. Shell LNG Outlook 2025. – URL: https://www.shell.com/what-we-do/oil-and-natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas-lng/lng-outlook-2025.html (data obrashcheniya 06.03.2025).
3. IGU. 2024 World LNG Report. – URL: https://www.igu.org/igu-reports/2024-world-lng-report (data obrashcheniya 07.02.2025).
4. GIIGNL. 2024 Annual Report. – URL: https://giignl.org/giignl-releases-2024-annual-report/ (data obrashcheniya 28.01.2025).
5. Global Energy Monitor. Global Gas Infrastructure Tracker. – URL: https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-gas-infrastructure-tracker/ (data obrashcheniya 17.02.2025).
6. BP Energy Outlook 2024. – URL: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html (data obrashcheniya 17.02.2025).
7. Goryachev A.A., Senina O.V., Surnin N.V. Sovremennoe sostoyanie i klassifikatsiya mirovogo flota SPG-tankerov // Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom. – 2024. – № 9(237). – S. 26–34.
8. AIS Marine Traffic. Global Ship Tracking Intelligence. – URL: https://www.marinetraffic.com/ (data obrashcheniya 15.01.2024).
9. Svidetel'stvo o registratsii bazy dannykh dlya EVM № 2017621370. Szhizhenie prirodnogo gaza v mire: sushchestvuyushchie zavody i perspektivnye proekty / A.A. Goryachev, O.V. Senina; pravoobladatel' OOO "NIIgazekonomika". – № 2017621047; zayavl. 26.09.2017; opubl. 27.11.2017.
10. S&P. Global Integrated Energy Model S&P Global. – URL: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/energy-transition-service (data obrashcheniya 17.03.2025).
11. Wood Mackenzie Global Gas Model. – URL: https://www.woodmac.com/industry/gas-and-lng/global-gas-model/ (data obrashcheniya 17.03.2025).
12. Future LNG competition and trade using an agent-based predictive model / A. Meza, I. Ari, M.S. Al-Sada, M. Koç // Energy Strategy Reviews. – 2021. – Vol. 38. – P. 100734. – DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2021.100734
13. Enderlin J., David L. A market model for LNG trading and LNG shipping // The IAEE International Conference. – 2021. – URL: https://iaee2021online.org/download/contribution/fullpaper/637/637_fullpaper_20210601_172821.pdf
14. Demkin I.V., Nikonov I.M., Safonov V.S. Optimizatsiya napravleniy i ob"emov morskoy transportirovki zhidkikh uglevodorodov na osnove imitatsionnogo modelirovaniya // Problemy analiza riska. – 2009. – T. 6, № 4. – S. 76–90.
15. The Evolution of the Global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Seaborne Trade Network: A Complex Network Analysis / Chen Shun, Xiao Yue, Dai Yihan, Mi Jinhong Jackson // Procedia Computer Science. – 2024. – Vol. 242. – P. 396–403. – DOI: 10.1016/j.procs.2024.08.169
16. Nexant World Gas Model. – URL: https://www.nexanteca.com/insights-and-analytics/markets-and-profitability/world-gas-model (data obrashcheniya 14.03.2025).
17. Route Planner. – URL: https://route.vesselfinder.com (data obrashcheniya 22.03.2025).