Risk determining algorithm at hazardous production facilities
UDC: 681.5
DOI: 10.33285/2782-604Х-2022-2(583)-36-40
Authors:
KARMANOV ANATOLY V.
1,
ORLOVA KSENIA P.1
1 National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russian Federation
Keywords: risk, hazardous production facility, incident, anti-disaster protection system, linear programming problem
Annotation:
This article describes and analyzes the algorithm for calculating such economic indicator as the risk when operating hazardous production facilities (HPF), serviced by an anti-disaster protection system. Herewith, the risk is an economic indicator that characterizes the "severity" of negative events and their consequences, which are "weighed" with the stationary probabilities of these events occurrence. In this case, the source of negative events is incidents that occur at a hazardous production facility, and the mentioned stationary probabilities are estimated by statistical data and, therefore, are determined with an accuracy of certain confidence intervals.
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