Scientific and technical journal
«Automation and Informatization of the fuel and energy complex»
ISSN 0132-2222

System principles and modeling of retaining the efficiency and risks of the functioning of specialized intelligent computer systems for supporting decision-making
UDC: 681.5:519.86
DOI: 10.33285/2782-604X-2022-4(585)-55-63
Authors:


1 National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russian Federation
Keywords: multi-criteria assessment, risk assessment, mean-value dynamics method, Markov chain with steady states, specialized software, system-wide software, efficiency retention rate, availability factor
Annotation:
The article is devoted to the principles of constructing and solving the problems of system modeling based on the mean-value dynamics method of the theory of Markov random processes and the theory of operational reliability of functioning (operation) of both system-wide and specialized software, using the example of intelligent automated information and analytical systems in oil and gas exploration under conditions of uncertainty and risk. The operation of this system is considered at the stage of stable operation – the stationary mode of operation of the Markov chain. Through the average numbers of objects states (elements of the system under consideration) and the intensity of their transitions from state to the state, a multi-criteria dispersion model for assessing the risk of their functioning is proposed. Efficiency and risk assessment models are proposed to select the optimal strategy (functioning option) according to a set of compromise criteria and constraints selected from the formed set.
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