«Automation and Informatization of the fuel and energy complex»

Study of problems of multilevel probabilistic modeling of flow distribution in pipeline systems

UDC: [519.2+519.61]:658.26
DOI: 10.33285/2782-604X-2023-11(604)-51-58

Authors:

¹ Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia

Keywords: pipeline systems, flow distribution, probabilistic modeling, multilevel approach

Annotation:

The article is devoted to researching the problem of probabilistic modeling of flow distribution in large dimensional pipeline systems and complex structure. To achieve this goal, the article for the first time proposes the application of a multilevel approach. The main provisions of this approach are presented. The ways of decompositioning the computational scheme and models of the pipeline system are proposed. Against the background of a brief characteristic of previously developed general and topological methods for flow distribution probabilistic modeling, a scheme of organizing a multilevel calculations sequence based on the application of these methods for different levels calculation schemes and topology (looped, tree-like) is presented. Particular attention is paid to the issues of coordinating solutions at decomposition points of different-level calculation schemes. The article presents some numerical and analytical studies of the proposed approach using conventional schemes. The results of the studies proved that to calculate the mathematical expectations of all mode parameters, dispersions of nodal flow rates, branches flow rates and branches pressure losses, it is sufficient to use the methods previously developed by the authors of the article (common and topological). To calculate the nodal pressure dispersions, it is required to take into account the correlation of the pressure field of the design scheme upper and lower levels. The reasons and possible directions for this correlation accounting are considered.

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