«Automation and Informatization of the fuel and energy complex»

Markov model of multi-criteria assessment and optimization of reliability and risks in self-synchronization of critical components of IT-project of network-centric enterprise management systems. Part 1

UDC: 004.418
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia

Keywords: critical components (objects), average dynamics method, mass service systems, software reliability, Markov processes, IT-project reliability, IT-project risk, self-synchronization, network-centric EMS, multi-criteria optimization

Annotation:

The authors of the article continue studying the complex problem of assessing and optimizing the reliability and risks of IT-projects for the implementation of enterprise management systems (EMS) within the framework of the problem solution of self-synchronization of critical components (intelligent agents) functioning in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The representation of an IT-project and EMS as a multi-component system necessitates an integral reliability assessment: the reliability of the system depends on the reliability of individual critically relevant components. The authors of the article present functioning of the system individual components as a continuous process of change of operable (functioning) and inoperable (non-functioning) states. Based on this fact, mathematical models and numerical methods of the theory of random processes and their special cases are proposed to account for component functioning specifics: Markov random processes with discrete states and continuous time for components represented by one or more objects; the method of average dynamics for components represented by a set of homogeneous objects; the death-reproduction model for software components. However, a comprehensive evaluation of the whole system requires taking into account the mutual influence (self-synchronization) of the components. The authors of the article propose a mathematical model of the process of self-synchronization of functioning of critical components of IT-projects and EMS on the basis of models of functioning of individual components and their control actions. Thus, the solution of the problem of the process of self-synchronization of functioning of critical components of IT-projects and EMS and its modifications allowing to estimate reliability of both each component and their homogeneous aggregate taking into account their specificity; identification of the zone (criteria) of the decision maker's increased attention and determination of the total damage when realizing threats of various risk events (states of the Markov process) is being continued.

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