Software implementation of solving the calculation risk problem in pipeline transport in case of incomplete initial data
UDC: 004.052
DOI: -
Authors:
KARMANOV A.V.
1,
SERKIN V.E.1
1 National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia
Keywords: block diagram, risk, controlled homogeneous Markov process, linear programming
Annotation:
The authors of the article present a detailed block diagram of the software implementation meant for solving risks determination problem for a complex technical system. Pipeline transport with incomplete initial data is considered as a complex technical system. In this case, the transition process through this system states is described by a homogeneous Markov process with income. The calculation modules included in the block diagram take into account the incomplete data impact on the amount of risk. Incomplete data are taken into account in the Markov process in the form of interval estimates for transitions intensities of a technical system according to its states. Due to the incompleteness of the specified data, the block diagram includes solving modules for a Markov process and linear programming problems. According to the given block diagram, a computer program was implemented in the Python computing environment. A demonstration example of risk determination under these conditions is presented.
Bibliography:
1. Sukharev M.G., Karasevich A.M. Tekhnologicheskiy raschet i obespechenie nadezhnosti gazo- i nefteprovodov. – M.: Neft' i gaz RGU nefti i gaza im. I.M. Gubkina, 2000. – 271 s.
2. Nadezhnost' sistem energetiki i ikh oborudovaniya: v 4 t. T. 1, 3 / pod obshchey red. Yu.N. Rudenko. – M.: Energoatomizdat, 1994. – T. 1. – 473 s.; M.: Nedra, 1994. – T. 3: v 2 kn. – Kn. 2. – 287 s.
3. Polovko A.M., Gurov S.V. Osnovy teorii nadezhnosti. – 2-e izd., pererab. i dop. – SPb.: BKhV-Peterburg, 2006. – 704 s.
4. Orlova K.P., Serkin V.E., Tokarev M.A. Otsenka riska pri otkaze konturov sistemy protivoavariynoy zashchity // Avtomatizatsiya i informatizatsiya TEK. – 2022. – № 5(586). – S. 34–40. – DOI: 10.33285/2782-604X-2022-5(586)-34-40
5. Avt. svid. 2023661804 Ros. Federatsiya o gos. registratsii programmy dlya EVM "Programmnyy modul' dlya rascheta zadachi ustoychivosti statsionarnogo pokazatelya kachestva slozhnykh tekhnicheskikh sistem" / K.P. Orlova, V.E. Serkin, M.A. Tokarev; pravoobladatel' FGAOU VO "RGU nefti i gaza (NIU) im. I.M. Gubkina". – № 2023619886; zayavl. 17.05.2023; opubl. 02.06.2023, Byul. № 6.
6. Severtsev N.A., Betskov A.V. Vvedenie v bezopasnost'. – 2-e izd., pererab. i dop. – M.: Yurayt, 2024. – 177 s.
7. Mikhaylov V.S. Issledovanie integral'nykh otsenok potoka otkazov // Nadezhnost' i kachestvo slozhnykh sistem. – 2018. – № 2(22). – S. 3–10. – DOI: 10.21685/2307-4205-2018-2-1
8. Barlou R., Proshan F. Statisticheskaya teoriya nadezhnosti i ispytaniya na bezotkaznost' / per. s angl. I.A. Ushakova. – M.: Nauka, 1984. – 327 s.
Back to issue