«Automation and Informatization of the fuel and energy complex»

Models of processing applications for connection to network gas supply systems and risks of their satisfaction during additional gasification of regions

UDC: 622.691-50
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia
² Gazprom promgaz, Saint-Petersburg, Russia

Keywords: gas supply, gas consumption forecast, capacity reservation, additional gasification, application for connection to the gas network, stochastic models, Box – Jenkins procedure

Annotation:

Applications for connection to the gas network contain valuable information for the development of medium-term plans for gas distribution and transportation organizations. The declared parameters for annual consumption volumes ℚ and hourly maximum q of gas supplies often differ significantly from their actual implementation. The main reasons for these discrepancies are not technical, but rather legislative and psychological factors. Making rational decisions requires developing mathematical models. The authors of the article propose models for processing information, received from existing and potential requestors that take into account its stochastic nature. When building the model, actual data on the dynamics of incoming applications from several regions of the Russian Federation were used. One of the functions of the proposed model is to determine the moment of termination of issuance of permits for connection to the gas network depending on the reserve of the pipeline system production capacities. The main criterion for assessing the capacities of the technical system is the maximum q of hourly supplies to consumers. The algorithm of determining the moment to cease issuing permits takes into account the dependence of q(Т) production capacity on air temperature as well as the degree of justification of the declared consumption volumes.

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