«Equipment and technologies for oil and gas complex»

Analysis of ice conditions to determine transport accessibility in the Arctic

UDC: 553.9:551.242.056:551.324.28:004.413.4
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6934-2023-6(138)-65-70

Authors:

¹ Northern (Arctic) Federal University "Lomonosov University", Arkhangelsk, Russia
² National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia

Keywords: risk assessment, alternative fuels, the Arctic, territory fuzzy logic, safety

Annotation:

Currently, the theme of transport activity in the Arctic region is becoming more relevant. However, the Arctic harsh conditions and the introduction of a new type of fuel oil (ultra-low sulfur fuel) to the standards, represent a new, completely unique environment in the study of transportation safety. The methodology of the approach for assessing the arctic seas transportation activity prospects is based on the fuzzy logic theory. It allows assessing the degree of incompleteness and uncertainty of our knowledge and providing effective instruments for building models that most adequately reflect the quantity and quality of the available data. The authors of the article implemented the fuzzy logic approach for evaluation of ships transportation activity, which use alternative fuel (ultralow sulfur fuel) in the Pechora Sea. The research results prove the success of using the fuzzy logic method when solving the predictive problem of risk assessment in the case of ice factors majority. The example of assessing transport accessibility supports the fact, that the ice parameters, being passed through the algorithm, show safe and dangerous regions for ships.

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