«Equipment and technologies for oil and gas complex»

Probability assessment of ball valve body failure in random mode of its operation

UDC: 622.23.05/192:004.94
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ Industrial University of Tyumen, Tyumen, Russia

Keywords: ball valve, strength analysis, safety factor, finite element method, regression analysis, non-parametric statistics, Parzen – Rosenblatt estimate, failure probability

Annotation:

The article considers the method of assessing the probability of the ball valve body failure by the strength criterion under the conditions of its loading by a random variable – internal pressure. The researches of various scientists suggest that temperature and pressure in pipelines are random variables, not always described by laws studied in the frames of parametric statistics. In the case under consideration, assessing the probability of pipeline elements failure (pipeline sections, valve elements) is not a trivial task. The method described in the article is based on the use of the finite element method to determine the dependence of stresses in the ball valve body material on internal pressure as well as methods of non-parametric statistics to restore the unknown distribution density function of the safety factor and assess the probability of the body failure. The implementation of the method is illustrated by the example of the KSh-38x21 ball valve and the operational pressure sample in one of the pipeline sections, which is not described by any of the known distribution laws.

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