«Geology, geophysics and development of oil and gas fields»

Analysis of modern efficiency of geological-technical measures during operational control of recoverable reserves on the basis of multidimensional statistical models

UDC: 622.276.1/.4.001.57
DOI: 10.33285/2413-5011-2022-10(370)-38-43

Authors:

¹ LUKOIL-Engineering Limited PermNIPIneft Branch Office in Perm, Perm, Russia
² The Azerbaijan State University of Oil and Industry, Baku, Azerbaijan
³ Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Perm, Russia

Keywords: multidimensional analog-statistical models, recoverable reserves, oil recovery factor, geological and technical measures

Annotation:

The current statistical models of forecasting the oil recovery factor, being in force in the Perm region nowadays, are built on the basis of the analysis of geological and field data for 2008. It becomes clear from the analysis that these models significantly underestimate the oil recovery factors, since they do not take into account the modern efficiency of geological and technical measures. The authors of the article statistically analyze the impact of geological, physical and technological development indicators on the oil recovery efficiency. For this purpose, the hypothesis of mean values equality in statistical samples using Student’s t-criterion has been tested. For Tournaisian-Famennian deposits, developed with the help of a reservoir pressure maintenance system, based on the oil production objects analysis of the latest development stages, multidimensional analog-statistical models are proposed. Comparison of forecast results with actual data proves their high convergence. The developed models for forecasting oil recovery factors can be recommended for use during the operational control of recoverable reserves. 

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