«Geology, geophysics and development of oil and gas fields»

Development of the method and estimation of applicability and efficiency of probability-statistical models for forecasting oil production rate increase in wells after hydraulic fracturing

UDC: 622.276.66.013
DOI: 10.33285/2413-5011-2022-4(364)-49-58

Authors:

¹ Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Perm, Russia

Keywords: proppant hydraulic fracturing, increase of oil flow-rate, probabilistic models, efficiency, forecasting

Annotation:

The influence of geological-technological and technical parameters of hydraulic fracturing has been analyzed for different samples of wells. Geological-technological parameters are known at the stage of wells-candidates selection, and technical parameters are formed during the hydraulic fracturing. Based on the analysis results, linear probabilistic models were built for each parameter. The complex indicator, which made it possible to calculate the predicted oil production increase in, was determined based on the probabilistic analysis results. It was revealed that the built dependences for the objects C₁tl and C₂vr are located in a single correlation field. Linear dependencies for objects T_l-B₆ and B₃B₄ are located in the single correlation field.

Linear dependences for the objects T_l-B₆ and B₃B₄ possess inheritance. The increase in the number of wells during the training selection ensures the forecasting accuracy increase. Taking into account the technical parameters of hydraulic fracturing allows increasing the forecasting accuracy.

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