«Geology, geophysics and development of oil and gas fields»

Development of probabilistic-statistical models for predicting the oil potential of the Yu2 formation

UDC: 553.98(571.1):550.8.072
DOI: 10.33285/2413-5011-2022-9(369)-31-40

Authors:

¹ LUKOIL-Engineering Limited KogalymNIPIneft Branch Office in Tyumen, Tyumen, Russia

Keywords: oil potential forecast, probabilistic-statistical methods, Tyumen formation, reservoir, cap rock, sedimentary complexes composing the reservoir

Annotation:

The article demonstrates an integrated approach to the task of predicting the oil potential of objects with a complex geological structure on the example of the Yu₂ formation of the Tyumen formation. The regularities of the Yu₁ and Yu₂ formations geological structure the in the area study was comparatively analyzed. Based on the comparative analysis, an assumption is made about the key influence of the reservoir structure features on the oil potential of the Yu₂ formation. To assess the assumption in the area under study, a number of probabilistic-statistical models for predicting oil potential have been developed, taking into account the facies features of sedimentary complexes composing the reservoir. A complex model of oil potential forecast based on the structural and capacity parameters of the Yu₂ formation has been developed, taking into account the facies features of the reservoir. A probabilistic-statistical model for assessing the reliability of the clay cap rock of the Yu₂ formation has been developed. Based on the forecasting models development, conclusions have been drawn that are of practical importance for the development of forecasting models in the adjacent areas where the industrial oil content of the Yu₂ formation has not yet been proven.

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