«Oilfield engineering»

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC RESERVOIR SIMULATION MODELS FOR QUANTITATIVE RISKS ASSESSMENT AND PROJECTS VALUE ASSURANCE

UDC: 622.279.04:621.311.001.57
DOI: 10.33285/0207-2351-2021-11(635)-14-19

Authors:

¹ LLC "LUKOIL-Engineering", Moscow, Russian Federation

Keywords: probabilistic modeling, geological uncertainties, risks, field development, reservoir and production engineering, Monte-Carlo method, "Latin hypercube" experiment, "Tornado" computational experiment, investment decision

Annotation:

Accounting for geological and technological uncertainties and risks is required while production forecasting and making decisions about project economic efficiency. In this way, application of probabilistic modeling for Greenfields is a reliable tool for such purpose. The paper describes an approach to preparing an ensemble of realizations of a probabilistic reservoir simulation model of the offshore gas condensate field in the Caspian region and presents the main results, including cumulative curves of the probability of achieving technological indicators. As a tool for sensitivity analysis of production data, the "Tornado" experiment was performed. In the paper, according to the results of the probabilistic geological-technological modeling, the key uncertainties were identified in the field of geology and development and an approach to the formation of a multivariate assessment of the production forecast data for making investment decisions are presented.

Bibliography:

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