OPTIMIZATION OF THE OPTION SELECTED FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRAM FOR ADDITIONAL EXPLORATION OF THE TURONIAN DEPOSIT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INFLUENCE OF GEOLOGICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTIES
UDC: 622.276.1/.4
DOI: 10.33285/0207-2351-2021-5(629)-5-13
Authors:
ROMANOVA DIANA DMITRIEVNA1,
KISELEV ANTON NIKOLAEVICH1,
NOVOPASHIN OLEG VLADIMIROVICH1,
DEGTYAREV ILIYA SERGEEVICH1,
YAGUDIN RADIK ASLYAMOVICH2,
ALEKSANDROV ALEXANDER ALEKSANDROVICH2
1 LLC "Tyumen Petroleum Research Center", Tyumen, Russian Federation
2 Kharampurneftegaz LLC, Gubkinsky, Yamalo-Nenets autonomous territory, Russian Federation
Keywords: uncertainty, multivariate calculations, probability, forecast, optimization of development, Turonian, dry gas
Annotation:
The use of hydrodynamic modeling allows selecting the optimal strategy for the development of a production facility. However, at the early stages of the object studying, the forecast can be characterized by significant uncertainties associated with the lack or inaccuracy of the initial data, therefore, to minimize the risks associated with the technical-economic efficiency of the project, multivariate modeling is used. Accounting of the uncertainties provides covering of the entire range of probable production profiles and determining the "quantiles" of the probability of each of them. The paper discusses the influence of the main petrophysical, geological, hydrodynamic and geomechanical parameters of uncertainty on the technical-economic indicators of T formation development options, describes the options for optimizing the development, taking into account the uncertainty parameters, as well as the development of a research program to clarify the uncertainty parameters that most affect the economic result.
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