«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF GAS CONSUMPTION IN GERMANY APPLYING REGRESSION METHODS

UDC: 519.862.7
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2021-11(203)-35-39

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russian Federation

Keywords: mathematical modelling, lagged variables, natural gas, regression analysis, forecasting, energy

Annotation:

The paper presents three mathematical multiple regression model built on the basis of statistical data on natural gas consumption in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) depending on the temperature and population. A normal distribution of the raw data and residuals was analyzed and a regression equation with a possible economic treatment of the data was derived. Using mathematical methods, a shift in the population data by 1 and 2 years was investigated, which significantly increased the reliability of the model. Based on the calculations, the importance of these indicators for gas consumption is shown. The importance of other variables that are not yet reported in this study is noted.

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