«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

Artificial intelligence in oil and gas production: possibilities and scenario forecast

UDC: 608
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2022-3(207)-38-46

Authors:

¹ Grozny State Oil Technical University named after M.D. Millionshchikov, Grozny, Russian Federation

Keywords: artificial intelligence, oil and gas production, upstream, forecast, possibilities, deposits

Annotation:

Artificial intelligence is changing the energy sector of the economy, where the oil and gas production industry is no exception. Oil and gas industry enterprises can be divided into three sectors: upstream, midstream and downstream. The most risky sector of oil and gas production is upstream, which is most in need of using the latest achievements of computer technologies to reduce project risks and uncertainties that directly affect the performance of oil companies. The possibilities of using artificial intelligence for the oil and gas industry in the upstream segment are analyzed. It is proved that the artificial intelligence technology will significantly reduce the project risks of investment decisions by eliminating the subjective component and the duration of the main stages of the new deposits development. The author has developed three scenarios for predicting the development of artificial intelligence technologies in the oil and gas production industry for the next 5, 10 and 20 years. A realistic forecast, which is considered the most likely one, shows that over the next 20 years, artificial intelligence will become a reliable "adviser" when making decisions about the development of new mineral deposits. It is also possible that up to 90 % of decisions will be made based on the recommendations of artificial intelligence, which will significantly increase the marginality of the oil production industry in the long term.

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