«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

Prospects for global energy consumption as assessed by leading foreign predictive centers

UDC: 622.276:620.9
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2023-12(228)-38-52

Authors:

¹ Oil and Gas Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
² National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia

Keywords: predictions, scenarios, energy consumption, primary energy resources, high uncertainty, International Energy Agency, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, International Renewable Energy Agency, BP oil and gas company

Annotation:

The article considers the results of the work of the main foreign analytical and predictive centers in the field of energy, published in 2022 and 2023. The views and ideas of the specialists of these organizations on the prospects for the development of global energy up to the middle of this century – the dynamics and volumes of demand for primary energy resources, their structure – were comparatively analyzed. It is shown that the range of these views covers all conceivable directions of the global energy development, therefore, in each such study several different scenarios are considered, and the authors themselves call such studies due to the high uncertainty of the upcoming period, not predictions, but a set of alternative scenarios for the future. At the same time, such studies show the main interests, preferences and aspirations of the political and financial-industrial structures behind their authors, which is necessary to know when predicting the development of the domestic economy and energy.

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