«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

Factor analysis of gas demand and supply dynamics in China in 2010–2021

UDC: 338.45:622.323
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2023-2(218)-63-69

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia

Keywords: natural gas, factor analysis, gas demand and supply, gas import volumes, gas main pipelines, liquefied natural gas, unconventional types of gas, China

Annotation:

China is the third largest consumer of gas in the world, but at the same time it is not able to cover domestic gas demand by only its own production, which makes the country the largest net importer of this energy resource. Russia, on the other hand, is the largest net exporter of this energy resource, and the territorial proximity of the countries expands the boundaries of cooperation and makes it more profitable. Considering that most of the contracts are concluded for a long period of time, the organization of gas supplies is designed to strengthen the long-term cooperation between the countries. The prospects for the development of energy relations are conditioned by the urgent necessity of the parties for diversification. Thus, in connection with the current global situation and the changing gas market conditions, Russia needs to diversify export directions, primarily to the east, where China is the largest and most strategically important potential gas market, which itself is vital to diversify the sources of energy supplies to the country. In this regard, it is necessary to understand the dynamics of import volumes change of both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China in order to predict these indicators and form a plan for the development of Russian projects with the possibility of gas supplies to China. It is necessary to carry out a factorial analysis of the dynamics of gas demand and supply in China in the retrospect in order to be able to predict China's gas balance and assess the role of Russia in the geographic structure of China's gas imports.

Bibliography:

1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022. – URL: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
2. World Population Prospects 2022 / United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. – URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/ (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
3. V Global CO2 emissions rebounded to their highest level in history in 2021 = V 2021 g. vybrosy CO2 v mire uvelichilis' do rekordnogo urovnya / IEA. – 2022. – URL: https://www.iea.org/news/global-co2-emissions-rebounded-to-their-highest-level-in-history-in-2021 (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
4. V Kitae startuet torgovlya kvotami na vybrosy CO2 – kommentariy / RenEn. – 2021. – URL: https://renen.ru/v-kitae-startuet-torgovlya-kvotami-na-vybrosy-co2-kommentarij/ (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
5. Gazovaya promyshlennost' Kitaya / TsDU TEK. – 2022. – URL: https://www.cdu.ru/tek_russia/articles/3/988/ (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
6. Gromov A. Perspektivy gazovoy otrasli Kitaya: sokhranitsya li "okno" vozmozhnostey dlya rossiyskogo syr'ya? // Energeticheskaya politika. – 2022. – № 1(167). – S. 50–69. – DOI: 10.46920/2409-5516_2022_1167_50
7. Dobycha slantsevogo gaza na krupneyshem mestorozhdenii KNR dostigla rekorda / Interfaks. – 2022. – URL: https://www.interfax.ru/business/850638 (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
8. Kitay zapuskaet sistemu torgovli kvotami na vybrosy parnikovykh gazov / ID "Kommersant"". – 2017. – URL: https://in-power.ru/news/ekologiya/chinaizapuskaet.html (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
9. Kitay zapustil obshchenatsional'nuyu ploshchadku torgovli kvotami na vybrosy uglekislogo gaza / TASS. – 2021. – URL: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/11916093 (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
10. Kitay zapustil sistemu torgovli kvotami na vybrosy CO2 / GMK Center. – 2021. – URL: https://gmk.center/news/kitaj-zapustil-sistemu-torgovli-kvotami-na-vybrosy-so2-2/ (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
11. Kitayskie slantsy / TsDU TEK. – 2022. – URL: https://www.cdu.ru/tek_russia/articles/1/992/ (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
12. Potreblenie gaza v Kitae po provintsiyam / GSU KNR. – URL: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=E0103 (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
13. Sayt Glavnogo tamozhennogo upravleniya KNR. – URL: http://www.customs.gov.cn/ (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
14. Sayt Gosudarstvennogo statisticheskogo upravleniya KNR. – URL: http://www.stats.gov.cn/ (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
15. Sayt Gosudarstvennoy komissii po razvitiyu i reforme KNR. – URL: http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/ (data obrashcheniya 23.12.2022).
16. Skorobogatov V.A. Rossiya i Kitay – velikie energeticheskie derzhavy XXI veka: proizvodstvo energoresursov, potreblenie, postavki, torgovlya, vliyanie na mirovuyu energetiku i geopolitiku (energeticheskuyu geostrategiyu) // Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom. – 2022. – № 5(209). – S. 59–69. – DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2022-5(209)-59-69