«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

The methodology for construction, optimization and assessment of the change of inter-industry balances "Production – Consumption" in the oil and gas sector

UDC: 338.4
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2023-3(219)-51-59

Authors:

¹ Center for System Analysis and Strategic Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus
² Russian Academy of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

Keywords: sustainable development goals, system of national accounts, oil and gas sector, ESG investment, dynamic standard method, final integral result

Annotation:

Today, it is more than ever important to determine the methodological basis and tools for assessing the effects of changes in individual industries on the economy as a whole and vice versa. Modern methods that are most often applied to determine the criterion of the economy optimal functioning are inflexible and do not allow an iterative process of optimizing the economy, replacing it by static data based on which a forecast is made. Such methods include, firstly, the system of national accounts. The oil and gas sector, being one of the key sectors in the economy of Russia and Belarus, is no exception. In order to more accurately determine the effects of this sector components changes on the economy of the Union State and within the framework of the study, a model for assessing changes in the inter–industry balance "Production – Consumption" has been developed, which allows optimizing the efficiency of the oil and gas sector as a whole. When developing the model, current trends in the field of ESG, the implementation of UN SDG-12 and the current macroeconomic environment are considered. The key results of the study include proving of the significant effect of using the model (up to 3 % of GDP for the Union State) as well as proving the right choice of growth points (the oil and gas sector is one of such points) allows stabilization of the economy as a whole and within one industry to remove imbalances and harmonize the production chain from raw materials to the finished product in terms of volume and time of release. At the same time, the public utility of such optimization is non-zero and consumption is also harmonized, while the disposable income of the population increases, environmental and social development agendas are fulfilled.

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