«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

A new paradigm of global energy security and the role of natural gas: how to reduce risks?

UDC: 620.9.001
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2023-9(225)-46-55

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas (Gubkin University), Moscow, Russia

Keywords: energy security paradigm, energy crisis, geo-economic fragmentation, non-carbon energy sources, energy transition, clean energy, critical minerals, rare earth minerals, marketing strategy, clean energy technologies, electric vehicles, supply chains disruption, intermittent energy sources

Annotation:

A new rapidly developing model of energy security paradigm should solve the energy trilemma: to ensure a balance between energy security, affordability and environmental sustainability. In 2023, global challenges in the energy industry have intensified the competition between these priorities. Natural gas plays a special role in providing this energy trilemma. Herewith, the key dilemma for investors in LNG projects is how to reconcile high demand growth in the near term with an uncertain but possible decline in demand in the long term. The basis of the new energy security paradigm is the system being created, based on an accelerated shift away from hydrocarbons (oil, gas, coal) and an aggressive transition to clean energy with a high vulnerability of emerging value chains, insufficient development of the required technologies, high cost of electricity production and extreme politicization of the ongoing changes. It is necessary to maintain a stable role of natural gas in providing the energy trilemma with a gradual, well-thought-out, market-oriented energy transition and a decrease of its role in the structure of the global fuel and energy balance, regardless of geopolitical contradictions.

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