«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

Formation of approaches to forecasting changes of the tax environment as a development of methods of investment decision-making in oil and gas companies

UDC: 005:336
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia

Keywords: uncertainty of tax environment, severance tax, gas industry, prediction, regressive economical-mathematical model, federal revenues

Annotation:

Due to the constant changes of tax legislation, there arises the question of possible methods to be applied for forecasting taxation in conditions of uncertainty in the tax environment. The problem, obviously, is more relevant, the higher is the share of taxes in the current expenses of the organization. In Russia, such an industry is the oil and gas industry, which, on the one hand, significantly fills the budget, and on the other hand, taxes make up a significant share in the selling price, often being the main element of costs. The authors of the article tested two hypotheses about the behavior of the mineral extraction tax rates for gas and gas condensate. One of them is based on the assumption that the rates are formed based on the expectation of gas revenues constant increase of the federal budget. The second one is based on the fact that the rates are formed by the necessity of continuing the trends in gas revenue share. Both hypotheses are not trivial because their fulfillment means that oil and gas prices fluctuations do not have a significant impact on the rates of the mineral extraction tax for gas and gas condensate. The results of the studies have shown that both hypotheses are statistically confirmed. The hypothesis of rates formation based on the tendency of maintaining a constant trend in gas revenues seems to be more reliable.

Bibliography:

1. Podkhody k kolichestvennoy otsenke neopredelennosti nalogovoy sredy, kak riskovogo faktora investitsionnykh neftegazovykh proektov / M.V. Smolenkova, A.E. Kos'minova, T.V. Kirichenko [i dr.] // Innovatsii i investitsii. – 2024. – № 1. – S. 207–215.
2. Ozdoeva A.Kh. Analiz osnovnykh aspektov sistemy nalogovogo regulirovaniya otrasli dlya tseley ustoychivogo razvitiya neftegazovogo biznesa // Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom. – 2024. – № 8(236). – S. 27–33.
3. Budzinskaya O.V. Prognozirovanie potrebnosti v kvalifitsirovannykh kadrakh na primere neftegazovoy otrasli // Sotsial'no-trudovye issled. – 2020 – № 3(40). – S. 81–89. – DOI: 10.34022/2658-3712-2020-40-3-81-89
4. Azieva R.Kh. O razrabotke modeli effektivnogo razvitiya neftegazovoy otrasli // Ekonomika i upravlenie. – 2021. – T 27, № 12. – S. 971–982. – DOI: 10.35854/1998-1627-2021-12-971-982
5. Shchadilova Yu.G. Vliyanie makroekonomicheskikh faktorov na stoimost' i kapitalizatsiyu neftegazovykh kompaniy // Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika. – 2021. – № 11-3(81). – S. 199–205. – DOI: 10.24412/2411-0450-2021-11-3-199-205
6. Ogorodnikova E.P. Ob"emy NDPI i otsenka faktorov, vliyayushchikh na ob"emy postupleniy v byudzhet // Nauka, obrazovanie, molodezh': gorizonty razvitiya: materialy II Nats. nauch.-prakt. konf., Kerch', 19 marta 2022 g. – Kerch': Kerch. gos. morskoy tekhnolog. un-t, 2022 – S. 407–411.
7. Kudryavtseva T.Yu., Kozlova E.A. Analiz i prognozirovanie sprosa na gaz s ispol'zovaniem modeli VARMA // Ekonom. analiz: teoriya i praktika. – 2021. – T. 20, № 10(517). – S. 1973–1990. – DOI: 10.24891/ea.20.10.1973
8. Bannikova N.V., Vorob'eva N.V., Sevost'yanova V.V. Perspektivnye napravleniya i prognoz osnovnykh parametrov razvitiya rynka gaza // Issled. problem ekonomiki i finansov. – 2021. – № 1. – S. 1. – DOI: 10.31279/2782-6414-2021-1-1-1-13
9. Borisova V.V., Kuznetsova D.Yu. Sovremennoe sostoyanie i napravleniya razvitiya gazovoy promyshlennosti RF // Natsional'naya assotsiatsiya uchenykh. – 2021. – № 66-3(66). – S. 41–44. – DOI: 10.31618/nas.2413-5291.2021.3.66.413
10. Oveshnikova L.V., Sibirskaya E.V. Kharakteristika napravleniy razvitiya rossiyskoy gazovoy sfery (otraslevoy analiz i prognozirovanie) // Rossiya: tendentsii i perspektivy razvitiya: materialy XXI Nats. nauch. konf. s mezhdunar. uchastiem, M., 16–17 dek. 2021 g. Vyp. 17. Ch. 1. – M.: INION RAN, 2022. – S. 487–492.
11. Marshova T.N. Prognozirovanie dinamiki tsen v neftepererabotke // Vestn. MGPU. Seriya: Ekonomika. – 2020. – № 3(25). – S. 37–50. – DOI: 10.25688/2312-6647.2020.25.3.04
12. Akinfiev V.K. Modelirovanie global'nogo rynka nefti: issledovaniya i rezul'taty // Upravlenie bol'shimi sistemami: sb. tr. – 2020. – № 85. – S. 173–205. – DOI: 10.25728/ubs.2020.85.8
13. Lebedeva N.Yu., Onyanova N.V. Issledovanie vliyaniya riskogennykh faktorov na investitsionnuyu deyatel'nost' predpriyatiya neftegazovoy otrasli // Aktual'nye problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya na predpriyatiyakh mashinostroeniya, neftyanoy i gazovoy prom-sti v usloviyakh innovatsionno-orientirovannoy ekonomiki. – 2020. – T. 1. – S. 37–48.
14. Postnikov V.P., Timirova K.A. Issledovanie zavisimosti dinamiki pokazateley investitsionnoy deyatel'nosti neftedobyvayushchey kompanii ot kon"yunktury rynka // Vestn. PNIPU. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie nauki. – 2019. – № 1. – S. 260–278. – DOI: 10.15593/2224-9354/2019.1.22
15. Deberdieva E.M., Frolova S.V. Stsenarnyy podkhod kak osnova prognozirovaniya otraslevogo razvitiya (na primere neftyanogo mashinostroeniya) // Vestn. Akad. znaniy. – 2019. – № 34(5) – S. 59–64.
16. Kolpakov A.Yu. Modelirovanie investitsiy v neftedobyvayushchem sektore Rossii // Problemy prognozirovaniya. – 2019. – № 6(177). – S. 73–82.
17. Prognozirovanie potrebleniya osnovnykh energoresursov v mire / N.P. Persteneva, Yu.A. Tokarev, O.A. Gorbunova, O.V. Kravchenko // Ugol'. – 2022. – № 12(1161). – S. 40–43. – DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2022-12-40-43
18. Agashin A.V. Prognozirovanie tsen na prirodnyy gaz kak instrument snizheniya ugroz ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti Rossii // Sovremennye tekhnologii upravleniya. – 2022. – № 4(100). – S. 9.
19. Silant'ev Yu.B., Khaloshina T.O., Kananykhina O.G. Prognozirovanie gazovogo rynka stran evropeyskogo soyuza s ispol'zovaniem matematicheskogo regressionnogo i klasternogo analiza // Gazovaya prom-st'. – 2018. – № 10(775). – S. 96–103.
20. Sravnitel'nyy analiz effektivnosti korrelyatsionno-regressionnogo i neyrosetevogo modelirovaniya v prognozirovanii energeticheskikh vybrosov uglekislogo gaza v Rossii / R.V. Gubarev, L.G. Cherednichenko, A.I. Borodin, E.I. Dzyuba // Vestn. Mosk. un-ta. Ser. 6: Ekonomika. – 2023. – № 3. – S. 217–238. – DOI: 10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-58-3-11
21. D'yachkov G.S. Osobennosti nalogovogo regulirovaniya neftegazovogo sektora ekonomiki v usloviyakh vysokoy volatil'nosti energeticheskogo rynka // Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo. – 2023. – T. 16, № 5. – S. 137–149. – DOI: 10.26794/1999-849X-2023-16-5-137-149