«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

Scenarios of global oil and gas industry development: a view from Russia

UDC: 339.1
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ Russian Energy Agency, Ministry of Energy of Russia, Moscow, Russia
² National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia
³ Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS, Moscow, Russia

Keywords: energy transition, energy development scenarios, sustainable development, power generation, natural gas, renewable energy sources

Annotation:

A new report prepared by the Russian Energy Agency of the Ministry of Energy of Russia, presents possible directions of the global energy transition deployment. Having considered three possible scenarios, the authors of the article make a choice for the scenario that assumes the maximum possible decarbonization of the energy system while maintaining reasonable limits on the amount of financing required for the restructuring of the global fuel and energy complex. This scenario, called "Rational Technological Choice", has, in the authors' opinion, the best chances for realization. The inertial scenario ("Everything as it used to be") is recognized as undesirable from the point of view of its impact on climate change. And the scenario of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 ("Net Zero") is assessed as unrealistic due to the excessive amount of funding required.

Bibliography:

1. Stsenarii razvitiya mirovoy energetiki / REA Minenergo Rossii. – M., 2024. – 130 s. – URL: https://rosenergo.gov.ru/upload/iblock/3d1/8sqnbqkt7w0a615xfaendc07k8yapvxg.pdf
2. Shirov A.A., Kolpakov A.Yu. Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060 // Studies on Russian Economic Development. – 2023. – Vol. 34, Issue 6. – P. 758–768. – DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723060151
3. Net Zero by 2050. A Roadmap for the Global Energy / IEA. – Paris, 2021. – 223 p. – URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
4. Mastepanov A.M. Perspektivy global'nogo energopotrebleniya v otsenkakh vedushchikh zarubezhnykh prognosticheskikh tsentrov // Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom. – 2023. – № 12(228). – S. 38–52. – DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2023-12(228)-38-52
5. Kolpakov A.Yu., Zinchenko Yu.V., Galinger A.A. Prospects for the Implementation of the World Energy Transition Scenarios // Studies on Russian Economic Development. – 2023. – Vol. 34, Issue 6. – P. 820–829. – DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723060072
6. Eder L.V. Prognoz mirovogo energopotrebleniya: metodicheskie podkhody, sravnitel'nye otsenki // Mineral'nye resursy Rossii. Ekonomika i upravlenie. – 2013. – № 6. – S. 47–54.
7. Apolonskiy O.Yu., Orlov Yu.N. Sravnitel'nyy analiz dolgosrochnykh prognozov razvitiya mirovoy energetiki // Preprinty IPM im. M.V. Keldysha. – 2007. – № 26. – 28 s. – URL: https://library.keldysh.ru/preprint.asp?id=2007-26
8. Nikiforov O. Termoyadernyy sintez v 30-e gody mozhet stat' prakticheskoy real'nost'yu // Nezavisimaya gazeta. – 2022. – 17 yanv.
9. World Energy Outlook 2023 / IEA. – 2023. – 355 p. – URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023
10. Parizhskoe soglashenie po klimatu 2015 g. – URL: https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_russian_.pdf
11. Assessing Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs) development in Europe / D. D'Agostino, S.T. Tzeiranaki, P. Zangheri, P. Bertoldi // Energy Strategy Reviews. – 2021. – Vol. 36. – DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2021.100680
12. LCOE. Lazard and Roland Berger estimates and publicly available information. – 2023. – 45 p. – URL: https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf
13. COP26: Together for our planet. – URL: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop26
14. Climate finance: Time to deliver. – URL: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/climate-finance-report
15. Irish J., Thomas L. Rich nations pledge to unlock hundreds of billions of dollars for climate fight. – URL: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/frances-macron-says-leaders-finalised-accord-100-bln-climate-finance-2023-06-23/