«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

US oil production modeling and forecasting in the light of the technological revolution

UDC: 339.9
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ Oil and Gas Research Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Keywords: oil industry, USA, liquid hydrocarbon production, mathematical modeling, shale revolution, forecast, technological revolution, drilling footage, correlation

Annotation:

The authors of the article consider key trends and prospects for the development of the US oil industry driven by the technological revolution. Based on the data of the US Department of Energy and the Statistical Review of World Energy, the dynamics of liquid hydrocarbon production is analyzed. Using mathematical modeling methods (linear and logarithmic dependencies), the current development stages of the industry are assessed and forecast drilling footage volumes are calculated to achieve target production levels (30 and 40 million barrels per day). It is shown that the industry is rising and far from the efficiency decline zone. Conclusions are drawn regarding the significance of the technological factor and potential risks for the Russian and global oil markets.

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