«Proceedings of Gubkin University»

MEAN RESIDUAL LIFE (MRL) OF GNEDENKO-WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION. ESTIMATES OF RESIDUAL LIFE TIME OF SUBMERSIBLE PUMP EQUIPMENT

UDC: 622.276.53:519.873
DOI: 10.33285/2073-9028-2020-1(298)-61-73

Authors:

¹ Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University), Moscow, Russian Federation

Keywords: reliability indicators, distribution of Gnedenko-Weibull, mean residual life

Annotation:

The working life model (behavior model) of the object - the Gnedenko-Weibull distribution law is postulated. As a measure of reliability the article uses the mean residual time (MRL). For the Gnedenko-Weibull model, new representations of the mean residual are obtained. The considered example of processing real operational data of pumps failures allows predicting the residual operating time of submersible equipment at the operational stage and can be used to assess the resource characteristics of the equipment.

Bibliography:

1. Kalu-Ulu T.C., Andrawus J.A. Modelling System Failures of Electric Submersible Pumps in Sand//SPE—151011—MS, 2011, р. 1-6.
2. Pastre L.F., Fastovets A. The Evolution of ESP Technology in the North Sea: A Reliability Study//SPE—187735—MS, 2017, р. 1-35.
3. Al-Jazzaf A.M., Pandit A., Al-Maqsseed N. Interpretation of ESP Reliability using Weibull Analysis and Dynamic Run//SPE—194393—MS, 2019, р. 1-20.
4. Lastra R., Aramco S. The Quest for the Ultrareliable ESP//SPE—184169—MS, 2016, р. 1-17.
5. Слепченко С. Математика прогноза//Нефтегазовая вертикаль. — 2006. — № 12 (6). — С. 48-51.
6. Слепченко С. Оценка надежности УЭЦН и их отдельных узлов по результатам промысловой эксплуатации. Дисс. канд. техн. наук. — М., 2011. — 146 c.
7. Черников В.С. К вопросу о надежности установок электроцентробежного насоса//Территория нефтегаз. — 2012. — № 3. — C. 68-73.
8. Capderou C., DiLorenzo N. A Fresh Look at Completion Reliability Supports Sand Control// SPE-159541, 2012, р. 1-16.
9. Cox D. Renewal Theory. London: Methuen&Co, 1962.
10. Chin-Die Lai, Min Xie. Stochastic Ageing and Dependence Reliability. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2006, 418 p.
11. Rusev V., Skorikov A. The mean residual life (MRL) of the Weibull-Gnedenko distribution// Seventh International Scientific Conference “Modern Methods, Problems and Applications of Operator Theory and Harmonic Analysis VII” Articles and reports — Rostov-on-Don, 2017. — P. 141-142. URL: www.otha.sfedu.ru/conf2017.
12. Gradshteyn I.S., Ryzhik I.M. Tables of Integrals, Series, and Products. — 7th edn. — New York: Academic Press, 2007, 1200 p.
13. Nassar M.M., Eissa F.H. On the Exponentiated Weibull Distrbution//Communications in Statistics — Theory and Methods, 2003, vol. 32, no. 7, p. 1317-1336.
14. Соколов С.В., Антонов А.В., Чепурко В.А. Оценка остаточного ресурса невосстанавливаемых элементов электрооборудования СУЗ реактора РБМК-1000 1-го блока Смоленской АЭС//Известия высших учебных заведений. Ядерная энергетика. — 2007. — № 3-1. — С. 38-43.