Risk assessment model of operation of technological system rock–drilling tools–drilling rig
UDC: 681.5:622.24
DOI: 10.33285/2782-604X-2023-12(605)-16-23
Authors:
SHMELEV VALERY A.
1,
STEPIN YURY P.2,
BLIZNYUKOV VLADIMIR YU.
1 Volgograd State Technical University, Volgograd, Russia
2 National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia
Keywords: technological system rock–drilling tool–drilling rig (R–DT–DR), generalized variables, transition probability density, states of the R–DT–DR system when drilling wells, method of average dynamics, risk cost assessment
Annotation:
Most optimization problems are formulated and solved in conditions of complete information availability. However, the problem adequate description contains various random and uncertain factors, taking into account of which ones leads to the necessity of making decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. The article proposes an approach to assessing the risk of drilling wells in case of a stochastic nature of the rock destruction process, based on the apparatus of Markov random processes, in particular, the method of average dynamics, which allows objective presentation of possible losses from the occurrence of an unfavorable event during drilling operations in oil fields.
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