«Automation and Informatization of the fuel and energy complex»

Sources and methods of error estimation when calculating gas reserves in gas supply systems

UDC: 528.088.2+519.245
DOI: -

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia

Keywords: pipeline gas transportation, gas reserves in a pipeline, assessment error, uncertainty assessment, Monte-Carlo method

Annotation:

The author of the article presents the results of solving the problem of estimating the error when determining gas reserves in gas supply systems as well as analyzes the contribution of various error sources. The error of gas reserves calculation in a pipeline section is determined by the error of geometric parameters calculation of the gas pipeline section, metrological characteristics of measuring instruments, error of the methods applied for determining gas physical-chemical characteristics, errors of determining the calculated parameters in the absence of readings from measuring instruments as well as instability of the process. The presented analysis is based on the concept of expanded uncertainty for gas reserves. The calculations performed proved the results consistency of the proposed uncertainty assessment method with the results of modeling by using Monte-Carlo method. In this case, a uniform distribution law of deviations was used to model the uncertainty of most parameters, since it is impossible to obtain the information required to justifying the choice of another distribution.

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