«Geology, geophysics and development of oil and gas fields»

Probabilistic and statistical substantiation of the local forecast of possible oil- and gas-bearing potential in the Pil’egorskaya area

UDC: 553.98.044
DOI: 10.33285/2413-5011-2023-12(384)-16-21

Authors:

¹ Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Perm, Russia

Keywords: probabilistic-statistical model, oil and gas potential forecast, developed structures, oil and gas potential assessment

Annotation:

The article made a forecast of the oil- and gas-bearing potential of the prepared structures by applying the probabilistic-statistical method within the Pil’egorskaya area based on the deposits of the Domanik age. The initial data were the parameters that control the oil and gas content of local structures: amplitude, area, dimensions of the short and long axes, absolute elevation of the dome and the distance from the deep-water basin. The informativeness of the indicators was determined on reference structures, within which, according to the data of deep wells drilling, the oil and gas potential or water saturation of the deposits was unambiguously proven. At the first stage conditional probabilities were calculated and probabilistic models of oil and gas potential were built for each parameter separately. At the second stage, in order to combine all the indicators under consideration into one general probabilistic model, a complex criterion was calculated, on the basis of which the oil and gas potential of the prepared structures was estimated. It has been revealed that within the area under consideration, the most promising in terms of oil and gas potential is the Pil’egorskaya structure.

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