APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS METHODS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MEASURES TO IMPROVE THE OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY OF WELLS WHEN USING THERMAL METHODS OF OIL RECOVERY
UDC: 622.245.1+519.234
DOI: 10.33285/0207-2351-2021-11(635)-59-65
Authors:
LOPAREV DENIS SERGEEVICH1,
DEMINSKAYA NATALIYA GRIGORIEVNA1,
FADEEV ANDREY GENNADIEVICH1,
LEVIN ARTEM VLADIMIROVICH1
1 LUKOIL-Engineering Limited PermNIPIneft Branch Office in Perm, Perm, Russian Federation
Keywords: correlation analysis, accidents during operation, mathematical statistics, Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient, Kendall tau rank correlation coefficient, data analysis, thermal enhanced oil recovery methods, high-viscosity oil
Annotation:
In the process of cyclic steam stimulation of wells at a high-viscosity oil field, an increased accident rate was noted, associated with the support integrity violation and downhole equipment. The problem was characterized by casing strings failures, cement stone destruction and downhole equipment accidents. To analyze the above-said problems, statistical information and retrospective data were collected from 200 wells, including design features of wells, heat treatment modes and information on emergency response for. From this array of information, a representative sample was selected (n = 152), which has satisfactory quality information for statistical research. The paper describes a correlation analysis of the data obtained during sampling of 152 wells to assess the influence of technological and design factors on the final accident rate. For the analysis of correlations, considering the specifics of the initial data, the method of rank correlations was chosen, with the calculation of the Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient (rs) and Kendall tau rank correlation coefficient (τk). The results of the analysis showed that out of several previously supposed reasons, only two were statistically significant: the zenith angle in the interval of installation of downhole equipment (rs = 0,31, τk = 0,25) and the service life-time (rs = 0,35, τk = 0,28). Considering the results of the study, constructive and technological recommendations for the construction and operation of wells were developed, which made it possible to reduce the accident rate by 78 %.
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