«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

The TINA model in regional hydrocarbon markets: European lessons of strategic sourcing

UDC: 339
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2022-10(214)-5-18

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia

Keywords: scenario forecasting, oil and gas industry, hydrocarbon markets, EU gas market, TINA model, MIRT-analysis of the life cycle of strategic alternatives, strategic management, P. Kralich matrix

Annotation:

The development of the world economy in the paradigm of modern political and geo-economic realities in which oil and gas companies operate is characterized by a high degree of instability and uncertainty. The sustainable development of oil and gas companies in future depends on their ability to predict and respond flexibly to a changing external environment. It is becoming increasingly difficult to create and maintain competitive advantages in the fight for future markets. The TINA scenario prediction technique is an effective tool for solving such problems. It allows companies to develop and implement a development strategy in the face of complete uncertainty and turbulence in the external business environment. TINA (There Is No Alternative) is a method of forecasting abrupt changes in the economy, in which scenarios are based on dominant trends that are not subject to the growing uncertainty of the external business environment at a particular stage of its development. The strategic situation of TINA is antithetical to the existence of strategic alternatives in the energy markets. The occurrence of such situations is recorded with the help of MIRT-analysis and the crisis in the EU gas market as part of the global energy crisis confirms this fact. Verification of the conclusions of MIRT-an analysis of the lack of alternatives to Russian gas supplies to the EU market as a system-forming part of the volume of supply on it allows carrying out such a traditional corporate management tool as the P. Kralich matrix. In the logic of strategic sourcing, Russian pipeline gas in the P. Kralich matrix belongs to the commodity group of strategic positions, while American LNG belongs to the group of problematic positions, which is ignored by the European Union and its gas strategy.

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