«Problems of economics and management of oil and gas complex»

System modeling of risk calculation in a multi-criteria assessment of the development of the auto-gas filling stations

UDC: 332.1:338.45
DOI: 10.33285/1999-6942-2022-8(212)-53-56

Authors:

¹ National University of Oil and Gas "Gubkin University", Moscow, Russia
² Gazprom Promgaz, Moscow, Russia

Keywords: risk, root-mean-square deviation, Bayes–Laplace criterion, Bordeaux rule, Pareto comparison

Annotation:

The article is a continuation of the previously published work, which was devoted to solving the problems of a multi-criteria assessment of the options for the development of the projects of the auto-gas filling stations (AGFS) in the context of uncertainty and risks. The subject of the study is a set of economic and mathematical approaches to assessing the risks of gas supply infrastructure development. The purpose of the article is to model and optimize the multi-criteria assessment of risks and the effectiveness of AGFS development. The risks assessing problem is solved by application of the hierarchies’ analysis method (HAM). In this article, the solution of the problem in case of risk assessment in the broad sense is reduced to solving a game with nature, in which a multi-criteria assessment and choice of the best option for AGFS development is carried out on the basis of multi-criteria ranking and choice according to the Bordeaux rule. The method under consideration allows a multi-criteria assessment and the choice of the best option for AGFS development in conditions of uncertainty and risk in order to increase the efficiency of functioning and preventing risks of losses in long-term and short-term periods.

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